![]() In such cases, the risks are not knowable and professionals hence face uncertainty. A third class of heuristics, Fast-And-Frugal trees, are designed for categorization and are used for instance in emergency units to predict heart attacks, and model bail decisions made by magistrates in London courts. Similarly, decisions by experienced experts (e.g., police, professional burglars, airport security) were found to follow the take-the-best heuristic rather than weight and add all information, while inexperienced students tend to do the latter. These results were experimentally confirmed in many experiments, e.g., by showing that semi-ignorant people who rely on recognition are as good as or better than the Association of Tennis Professionals (ATP) Rankings and experts at predicting the outcomes of the Wimbledon tennis tournaments. ![]() They proved analytically conditions under which semi-ignorance (lack of recognition) can lead to better inferences than with more knowledge. ![]() With Daniel Goldstein he first theorized the recognition heuristic and the take-the-best heuristic. ![]()
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